Voters ages 50 and up may decide the 2024 presidential election based on ‘day-to-day pocketbook issues,’ expert says

In a heated presidential race, there’s one age cohort — voters ages 50 and up — who may help decide the ultimate winner.

“We expect the 50-plus electorate to be the majority of the electorate, and we think at the end of the day they’re going to determine the outcome of the election, particularly in the swing states,” said John Hishta, senior vice president for campaigns at AARP, an interest group focusing on issues related to individuals 50 and up.

About 90% ages 50 and up say they are extremely motivated to vote, AARP has found, versus 75% of voters under age 50.

Much of whether individuals in the 50-plus camp choose the Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, or the Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, comes down to who they perceive to be better for their wallets.

“It’s all related to day-to-day pocketbook issues, and who’s better able to handle those issues moving forward,” Hishta said.

Inflation ranks as a top concern, as well as Social Security due to the high cost of living, he said.

Prescription drug prices, which tend to take up a larger share of household budgets as people age, are also top of mind. Caregiving is another area this cohort is paying attention to, since a substantial portion of people ages 50 and over serve in those roles, he said.

To be sure, voters ages 50 and up are not the same. Those ages 50 to 64 tend to lean Republican, while those ages 65 and up are now split about 50/50, Hishta said.

As with voters across the board, there is a gender split. Trump has a “fairly substantial lead” among 50-plus men, Hishta said, while women 50 and up lean toward Harris.

Older Republican women ages 50 and over cite immigration and inflation as their top issues, a KFF survey from earlier this year found. For older Democratic women, threats to Democracy tops their list.

More from Personal Finance:
How the ‘vibecession’ is influencing investors this election
Inflation is cooling, yet many Americans still live paycheck to paycheck
What top advisors are telling investors to expect this election

Kathy Shanks, 74, of Pinellas County, Florida, cites inflation, immigration and overseas spending of taxpayer dollars as the top issues she’s worried about. She cast her ballot early, voting for Trump for president for the third time.

In 2020, President Joe Biden won Pinellas County, while Trump won Florida overall. Consequently, that county on the western coast, which was recently hit by Hurricane Milton, is one to watch this election.

Though Shanks receives Social Security, she still works as a security guard, saying “there’s no way” she could make it on her monthly retirement benefit checks alone.

Even as the pace of inflation has come down from post pandemic highs, Shanks said her cost of living is still high and her car insurance rates recently increased significantly.

Experts are also keeping a close eye on battleground states where support for the Republican and Democratic candidates is particularly close.

Results in eight states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — could decide who wins the White House.

Bill Astle of Oro Valley, Arizona, who is 87, said he voted early for Harris.

Astle, who was previously a faculty member at the Colorado School of Mines, a state university, relies on a pension for income. Though he does not receive Social Security retirement benefits, he worries about the future of the program on behalf of everyone else who relies on it for income.

Most Americans say Social Security is “one of the top” or a “very important” issue in how they will vote this election, a CNBC poll found. The program faces looming trust fund depletion dates as soon as 2033, which may require benefit cuts, unless lawmakers act sooner.

Astle lives a little over 60 miles from the Mexican border, and said the talk of higher crime in the area due to immigration is exaggerated. “It’s one of the safest places in the country,” he said.

While both Shanks and Astle have cast their votes, they lament the lack of communication they have with voters who have opposing political views.

“Our social circle seems to have evolved, and some might say devolved, into largely people who think like we do,” Astle said of he and his wife’s social group.

But local news reports show “it is very much a purple situation,” or a blend of blue Democrats and red Republicans, he said.

Likewise, Shanks said she’d like to hear more from Democratic voters on the reasons why they back Harris.

“People who are voting blue, they won’t tell me why,” Shanks said.